Brazil Heads to a Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro Runoff as the Bolsonaro Family Expands Its Reach

Brazil’s presidential election is going to a second round after neither President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nor Senator Flávio Bolsonaro cleared the 50% threshold required to win outright.

With virtually all votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with about 47%, while Lula took roughly 45.1%. The two will face each other again on Oct. 25.  

The presidential result was only part of the story. Several members of Jair Bolsonaro’s family also won office. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro won a Senate seat for the Federal District. Carlos Bolsonaro was elected senator for Santa Catarina, Jair Renan Bolsonaro won a federal deputy seat, and Jair Bolsonaro’s brother Renato Bolsonaro was elected to the Chamber of Deputies from São Paulo.  

One correction to the early social-media chatter: Jair Bolsonaro’s former wife Rogéria Bolsonaro did not win her race for federal deputy in Rio de Janeiro.  

The Right Had a Much Bigger Night Than One Presidential Result

The broader congressional numbers are just as significant. Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party elected 19 senators in this cycle and is expected to begin 2027 with 28 seats, giving it the largest Senate caucus at the start of a legislature since Brazil’s 1988 Constitution.

That helps explain why the reaction has gone well beyond one close presidential contest. Brazil did not simply produce a Lula–Bolsonaro runoff. Voters also strengthened the political infrastructure surrounding the Bolsonaro movement.

There is plenty to debate about why. Cost-of-living concerns, crime, corruption and dissatisfaction with the government all featured heavily in the campaign.   But the scale of the family’s electoral success is hard to miss.

The country now has three more weeks of campaigning, a closely contested presidential runoff and a significantly strengthened right in Congress.